Casino Bonus Wagering Calculator

How this calculator works

Three numbers determine whether a welcome bonus is actually worth claiming: the required wagering, the expected loss against the games' RTP, and the retention probability based on how aggressively the wagering multiplier is set. This calculator gives you all three from one set of inputs.

Required wagering

The formula is bonus × multiplier / (game contribution / 100). A CA$100 bonus at 40x on slots (100% contribution) means CA$4,000 of real-money wagering. Switch to live blackjack at 5% contribution and the same bonus suddenly requires CA$80,000 of wagering — twenty times more.

Expected loss

Every dollar wagered carries the house edge as a long-run cost. required wagering × (1 − RTP / 100) = expected loss. At 96.5% RTP and CA$4,000 of wagering, the math expects you to lose around CA$140 in the process of clearing the bonus.

Expected net value

bonus − expected loss. This is the number that matters. A 225% bonus that requires you to lose CA$1,500 in wagering to keep CA$200 net is structured against you, no matter how big the headline number sounds.

Retention probability

This is a rough heuristic — the probability that bonus funds survive the full wagering cycle without going to zero. It's calibrated against public player surveys and should be read as a directional indicator rather than a precise prediction.

Why RTP defaults to 96.5%

That's roughly the weighted average RTP for popular online slots across the major providers (NetEnt, Pragmatic Play, Play'n GO). If you're playing higher-RTP titles like Mega Joker (99%) or Blood Suckers (98%), override RTP in the advanced panel. Live dealer games and table games typically run 97-99% house RTP but their wagering contribution drops them out of efficient bonus clearing anyway.

Frequently asked questions

What's a "good" wagering requirement?

Under 30x is generous. 30–40x is industry standard for offshore operators. Anything above 50x is structured to retain bonus funds. Wild Fortune's 40x sits at the high end of standard.

Why does game contribution matter so much?

Most casinos cap live dealer contribution at 5% and table games at 10–20% to prevent low-variance bonus clearing. The contribution percentage is multiplicative — a 95% contribution penalty turns a CA$4,000 wagering target into CA$80,000. Always read the contribution table in the bonus terms.

Is this calculator accurate?

The required-wagering and expected-loss formulas are mathematically exact. The retention-probability output is a heuristic — useful for comparing bonuses against each other, not for predicting your specific session outcome.

Does this work for AU and CA players?

Yes. Toggle currency between EUR, AUD, and CAD. The math is identical — only the display formatting changes. Bonus terms vary by operator, not by player region.

What about "no deposit" bonuses?

We deliberately don't support those in this calculator. They're built around a maximum-cashout cap that the simple EV math doesn't capture, and they reliably attract bonus hunters whose play patterns don't resemble normal sessions. Stick to deposit-match bonuses with this tool.

Try it on Wild Fortune's welcome package

Wild Fortune Casino currently offers 225% match up to CA$7,500 across three deposits, plus 250 free spins with zero wagering on the spins. Pre-fill: CA$100 bonus, 40x wagering, 100% contribution, 96.5% RTP. See whether the math works out for your deposit size. Read our full Wild Fortune review →

18+ only. Please play responsibly. This calculator estimates the mathematical expected value of casino bonuses and does not predict individual session outcomes. Gambling involves financial risk. Responsible gambling resources.